Hurdles ahead for Google's cellphone plan

From csmonitor.com (8 Nov 2007)

Bringing Internet openness to the closed wireless world is bold but difficult, analysts say.

After months of speculation, Google this week unveiled its long-awaited "GPhone." But it wasn't a phone, it was something potentially far more powerful: a sweeping alliance of cellphone makers, carriers, and programmers that have committed to developing a new generation of mobile devices and perhaps a new philosophy for the wireless world.

The announcement was about Android, a new, Google-led operating system for cellphones. It will be free and open-source, meaning that anyone will be able to use the underlying software to create programs that can run on millions of mobile devices around the globe. If the idea takes off – and that is still a big if – Android could represent an unprecedented fusing of the creativity that has made the Internet useful and fun with the ubiquity of mobile phones.

"This Google proposal can do to cellphones what the Internet did for the personal computer," says David Weinberger, a fellow at Harvard University's Berkman Center for Internet & Society. "The Internet created a new public space, and the opening up of cellphones will do the same thing, but extend that space beyond the time that we spend tapping at a keyboard."

This new era of mobile creativity flows from the idea that Android will let anyone anywhere write programs and share them with the world. So cellphone innovation could come from a developer in her office or a teen in his bedroom. And the next Internet blockbuster business could be sparked by a mobile-phone application.

That's if things go according to plan. Many have tried and failed to crack today's closed mobile marketplace, where carriers create and guard software that often runs only on their cellphones. Many analysts doubt that even Google, as big as it is, can succeed.

Even Apple's iPhone, which allows users to freely surf the Web, won't download any new applications. What comes with the phone is all you get. Apple says it will open up its iPhone to third-party applications in February, but has not specified how restrictive the development process will be.

Other companies, such as Nokia, have fostered large programming communities, especially outside of the US. "But then you have to worry about whether the program you wrote for one phone will work on another phone, even within the same carrier network," says Chetan Sharma, head of his own wireless consultancy in Issaquah, Wash. "Often, developers will have to rewrite the code 50, 200, 300 times for the hundreds of different handsets on the market."

Android hopes to quash these worries. In theory, each phone that runs off Google's software will speak the same language. Just as consumers don't have to worry if their Windows-compatible software will run on both Dell and HP computers, Google plans for Android software to run on any phone that adopts the system.

Google will release the actual code next week, but doesn't expect any handsets to utilize it until the second half of 2008. Until more details come out, many developers are cautious.

"The whole idea of branching out to the mobile platform and reaching a mobile audience is new and exciting," says Michael Lazerow, CEO of Buddy Media, a New York developer of applications for Internet platforms, such as the MySpace and Facebook social networks. "We're interested in building applications over every social network that could make us money. If mobile phones offer that, then we'll be there, but it's too early to tell."

So far, Facebook is the only social-network platform that Mr. Lazerow says has opened up its operating software to allow anyone to make money off Facebook programs that they develop. Today, there are 7,700 Facebook applications.

These thousands of mini-programs range from the handy and useful to the silly and pointless. But sometimes, even innovations designed to be frivolous turn into important new tools. Twitter – the social website that asks users to constantly post what they're doing right now in 140 characters or less – became a key source for decimating emergency information during the southern California wildfires last month.

Before the unveiling of Android, translating Facebook's model to the mobile market place seemed impossible. The big networks would balk; smaller carriers never had enough users to attract many outside professional developers.

"The telcos have fought any opening up of their walled garden because it goes against their survival instinct," says Craig Settles, an industry consultant in Oakland, Calif. "But Google has the muscle to make this work."

The coalition that Google has brought to the table, called the Open Handset Alliance, is an impressive global lineup, most analysts agree.

"This whole move by Google will have a significant impact on mobile users but not for some time," says Charles Golvin, a principal analyst for Forrester Research based in Cambridge, Mass. One big change will be in the way people perceive their cellphones, he says. Just as the iPhone showed a wider audience that full Web capability was possible in a phone, the coming Android devices could spark greater adoption of Internet-ready handsets.

Low-cost laptop production started

Reuters (8 Nov 2007)

BOSTON (Reuters) - A nonprofit group said on Tuesday production of a new laptop computer for children in developing countries had begun, a milestone that could shake up the PC industry by ushering in a new era of low-cost computing.

The One Laptop per Child Foundation, started in 2005 by Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Nicholas Negroponte, said Taiwan's Quanta Computer had started mass production of its first product, the lime-green-and-white XO laptop computer, at a factory in Changshu, China.

The group has already announced orders for children in Uruguay and Mongolia. It also plans to offer the laptops to Americans and Canadians through a $399 holiday charity program that covers the cost of providing a second machine to a child overseas.

The device, which runs on free Linux software, has already had a significant impact on the industry.

Negroponte has traveled the globe meeting world leaders and talking to the public about speeding introduction of computers to children in the developing world. The XO is designed for elementary school students who are given the machines to take to and from school, like textbooks.

Analysts say the publicity he generated, along with concern his foundation's laptop might take business from commercial products, prompted companies, including chipmaker Intel Corp to boost investment in developing countries.

It has also spurred the launch of a new class of low-cost computers for a market broader than school children.

Intel has developed the Classmate PC for the education market in developing countries, a laptop that it says costs $200 to build. So far its biggest customer is Pakistan's Allama Iqbal Open University, which ordered 700,000 of them.

Taiwan's Asustek Computer Inc recently introduced a line of notebook computers, the Eee PCs, that retail for as little as $245 in some countries and are targeted at children and women.
On Friday, Wal-Mart Stores Inc offered a limited number of laptops from Acer Inc for $348. It is possible that Wal-Mart might repeat the promotion or that other retailers will offer similar deals during the holiday shopping season.

(Editing by Jason Szep, Tim Dobbyn)

BEC heading for record sales next year

Bangkok Post (8 Nov 2007)

Ad rates will match top-rated Channel 7

A 7% increase in commercial rates by BEC World Plc has prompted analysts to revise upward their revenue growth targets for next year, which could be another record for the Channel 3 television operator.

Chatchai Thiamtong, the company's vice-president for finance, said the new rate for commercials during prime time (8 to 10:30 pm) would increase by 7% to 450,000 baht per minute in January. The rate will match that charged by Channel 7, the top-rated station.

With the increase, second-ranked Channel 3 will close the rate gap with its larger rival for the first time in four years.

''The increase was a result of high demand and a supply shortage,'' said Mr Chatchai.

Thailand next year will have just four commercial TV stations _ Channels 3, 5, 7 and 9 _ because TITV, formerly known as iTV, is expected to stop carrying advertising under a government plan to make it a public broadcaster.

Mr Chatchai declined to forecast the impact of higher commercial fees on BEC's 2008 revenues. However, an analyst at Phatra Securities recently adjusted the revenue projection to 7.3 billion baht for next year, from 6.97 billion forecast earlier. In addition, Phatra revised up its profit projection for BEC from 2.45 billion to 2.67 billion baht.

An analyst at United Securities agreed, saying next year would be a record year for Channel 3. The same analyst also predicted that overall ad spending on TV would likely increase, partly because of rising rates. Though TV is expensive, advertisers would stick to the medium as the most effective channel.

For the first three quarters of this year, BEC's net profit rose by 31% year-on-year to 1.73 billion baht. Third-quarter profit rose to 605 million baht or 0.31 baht a share, from 427 million (0.21 baht a share)a year earlier. Advertising revenue rose 18% to 1.81 billion baht.

''The third quarter was better than expected,'' said Mr Chatchai. ''Normally, the third quarter is the low season for ad spending due to the rainy season. But [this year] was better because economic and political conditions have been improving since the second quarter.''

He acknowledged that commercial airtime during prime time was close to being fully booked. Consequently, the station would carry on strengthening early prime time (6 to 8.30 pm) and non-prime time programming.

By law, commercials on TV are limited to 12 minutes per hour.

BEC shares closed yesterday on the SET at 24.60 baht, up 80 satang, in trade worth 199.5 million baht.

Which is worse: Thailand or Pakistan?

Bangkok Post (8 Nov 2007)
M.L. NATTAKORN DEVAKULA

At first instance the answer is not hard to figure out. It is Pakistan which is worse, politically speaking that is.

With the continuing mess over there involving street protests as well as the combined recent explosions which killed over 130 people, the South Asian nation is facing the tough task of having to handle a president whose powers extend beyond the normal limitations of a head of state, a judiciary out of control sending lawyers to protest with alternative political agendas, fundamentalist Islamic terrorists plotting the next attack on Islamabad, growing Western ties via US-leaning politicians like former prime minister Benazir Bhutto...

Comparatively, however, the developing democracies of Pakistan and Thailand are similar in many aspects. Here's why:

Corruption is the ultimate claim in ushering in military rule and the consequent sweeping out of elected administrations.

This is the very rationale used by General Pervez Musharraf when he delivered the surprise ousting of popularly elected Nawaz Sharif.

As well, General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin opted for corruption as one of the four reasons behind the Sept 19, 2006 power grab.

To go even further back, the corruption card has been used in nearly every single coup d'etat in the history of the Thai kingdom. In this sense, Thailand may actually be worse.

If there is a contrast here, it is that most coup leaders in Thai history have also resorted to the accusation of lese-majeste, proven or unproven, against the elected government leaders, to lay additional legitimacy upon an extra-constitutional intervention.

Pakistan does lack this aspect. Yet, a comparable factor may be the claims by many Pakistani strongmen against elected leaders for selling out national interests to Western nations and companies.

This is often used by Pakistani coup leaders to oust democratically-elected prime ministers.
Politicians who tend to favour military officials upon learning that there will be a coup (and realising the fact that after the coup they stand a chance of coming into power), tend to exact opportunities wisely.

This is a recurring phenomenon in both countries. Benazir Bhutto fits this particular mould. Had it not been for the emergency decree, she would already be running to join the administration of the then only president-elect Gen Pervez Musharraf.

Negotiations with military powers-that-be are essential for the political survival of politicians whose intention is not to stand up for revolutionary democratic change. Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party is analogous to a political party in Thailand which cowers down to those top boots. This is not to place blame on any of the participants, for what is at hand is rather a systemic transnational obstacle to democratic evolution, rather than a specific single-country problem.

The future downfall of the nation may partly originate from the fact that the judiciary branch has been brought in to engage in political activity.

In Pakistan, street protesters asking for President Musharraf's resignation comprise lawyers and judges. The now former Supreme Court Justice was a focal point of the Musharraf opposition; politically he was seen as a new candidate to lead Pakistan.

Unions representing lawyers, judges and professionals within the legal community have called for a regime change. They also resorted to practically every means - nearly extra-constitutional - to remove their president. Their last aim was to strip President Musharraf of his electoral victory by disqualifying him ex-post. The role of the judiciary was, and still is, too expansive.

Similarly in Thailand, judges have become too powerful. Making decisions and delivering verdicts in cases of political consequence paves the way for the judiciary to be a "party" to political activity. The glut of cases at the Administrative Court on privatisation issues, on public officials' removal, and on an annoyingly large number of executive branch-realm powers, can disrupt a balanced function of the branches.

Further, the BE 2550 Constitution grants judges the power to take part in the selection and removal of members of independent agencies.

One of the few elements that separate Thailand from Pakistan when it comes to judges is that at least here they do not go out to rally for regime change. If the kingdom keeps going down this route, however, that may change. Who or what is to blame for this?

It can be stated unequivocally that Pakistan's stability faces a much graver threat from terrorist forces than Thailand's. National security in this nuclear power is at stake when it comes to their current fight against a growing al-Qaeda.

Thailand's southern provinces face a similar thorn, but at least the capital Bangkok has yet to be gripped with fighting the virulent plague of transnational Western ideology-hating extremists. Barring this particular latter point, the politics of that South Asian nation and our Land of Smiles have more in common than in contrast. Politicians are elected to operate the engine that is the executive branch. Then, in turn, they become corrupt and are ousted, beginning with street protests then later with an armed power grab. Consequentially, the extension of power follows either overtly through a self-proclaimed presidency, or a superficial electoral referendum.

The extension of power can also be followed by constitutionally-embedded provisions and agenda-framing propaganda in order to perpetuate recurring technocrat-military alliance duumvirate leaderships.

A final curtain closes with a politically-engaged judiciary branch forever linked to decisions that shape government policy and dictate the fate of politicians.

If Thailand's democracy is not going to evolve, at least we know we will have a friend.
The writer is a news analyst.

Experts say economic upturn will be gradual

The Nation (8 November 2007)

Both Thai and foreign economists and finance experts this week agreed that Thailand's economy was unlikely to recover immediately after the December 23 general election.

However, the election holds the promise of a good start to a better political situation and clearer economic policies that will restore the confidence of both Thai and foreign investors.

These findings came from a two-day conference organised by the Australian-Thai Chamber of Commerce entitled "Asian Growth: The Next Steps 2007".

Panellists shared the view that Thailand's economy could be expected to recover next year after the election of a stable government.

However, positive sentiment is unlikely to return overnight, because investors will remain concerned about several factors, including tighter business regulations and the baht's fluctuation problems, as well as external problems affecting the country's economy.

Australian Ambassador William Paterson said foreign investors wanted the new government to have clearer investment policies, as these were a key to driving the country's economic growth.
"Australian investors are 'waiting and seeing'," Paterson said. "We hope the new government will have economic policies that will draw foreign investors back."

The ambassador said the new government should be consistent and adopt measures to facilitate foreign investment. These should include abandoning amendments to the Foreign Business Act, because tighter regulations will destroy foreign investors' confidence.

He said Australian investors remained keen on Thailand's mining, manufacturing, banking, insurance and services sectors but were waiting for clearer policies.

Chamber president Gary Woollacott said businessmen were expecting all of the negative factors that had affected confidence over the past year-and-a-half to ease after the election.

"Although the economy will not immediately recover, it should gradually improve. We expect the new government will have liberal policies, to boost foreign investors' confidence," Woollacott said.

He echoed the Australian ambassador's call for cancellation of amendments to the Foreign Business Act and said foreign investors also wanted to see more stable trade and finance policies, including currency controls, and stimulating plans to develop competitiveness and boost domestic consumption.

Trade Negotiations Department deputy director-general Winichai Chaemchaeng said the Thai economy was expected to grow 4.5-6 per cent next year.

Despite such negative factors as the global economic slowdown, increasing competition and volatile oil prices, the baht is expected to be more stable, and Thai politics will enter a time of greater certainty.

Winichai said the government intended to liberalise more of the services sector despite having to preserve some businesses for Thais only. Liberalisation will proceed step by step, like it has in other Asean countries, and will go further under bilateral pacts.

Thailand and Australia will begin further negotiations on a free flow of services under their free-trade agreement next year. However, Thailand may need to reserve some sectors, such as telecommunications, for a few more years, he said.

Supavud Saicheua, managing director of Phatra Securities' research group, said the new government's biggest challenge would be promoting growth in the gross domestic product next year despite all of the negative factors. To boost trade and investment, the government should reconsider its policy of intervening in the exchange market via purchasing US dollars and selling baht, because this leads to fluctuations and erodes the balance of the system.